Thursday – Saturday Weather:
Mostly sunny for Friday and partly sunny for Saturday as the trough and associated low-pressure system start to dig south along the West Coast. Ridgetop winds from the SSW gusting up to 40-50+ mph by Saturday afternoon. Highs in the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the upper mountains.
Sunday Storm Approach:
Sunday is the transition day into a cold and snowy pattern for early next week. The latest model runs continue to show the initial low-pressure system dig south and stall along the coast, keeping precipitation just west of the Sierra through the day on Sunday, with just clouds.
The winds are also not expected to be as strong as Saturday. Sunday night, another cyclone spins up around the bottom of the initial low spinning near the coast, and helps to push the band of precipitation into the Sierra at some point. The latest model runs suggest between 7-10 PM, a bit faster than they were suggesting the last couple of days.
Snow levels drop near the base Sunday evening as snow pushes in, and drop well below the base by early Monday morning. Several inches of snow are possible Sunday night as the storms are just getting going!
Monday – Wednesday Powder Dump:
The cold trough digging in over the West Coast is going to shift back and forth like a clock pendulum between Monday and the following Tuesday, the 24th. The farther west it is centered, just off the coast, the wetter the storms that can spin up down the coast into the Sierra. As it shifts east, that pushes the storm track a bit east over land with drier systems. Monday – Tuesday, it’s just off the coast, opening the door to wet & cold storms.
The first storm will continue snow into Monday, with the next colder storm moving in from the NW into Tuesday, when we could see the heaviest snowfall rates. Then steadier snow showers into Wednesday, becoming more scattered later in the day and diminishing into Wednesday night.
The OpenSnow PEAKS model is still showing 4-5 inches of total precipitation falling over Palisades by Thursday morning. The best part of this storm pattern is how cold the air will be, which works magic as the cold, moist air flows over the mountains.
Highs in the 30s on Monday for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations drop to 20s and teens for Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow ratios increase to 15-20:1, fluff factor! My updated snowfall forecast for the 3.5 – period is for around 40-50 inches of snow near the base, 50-60 inches near mid-mountain, and 60-70 inches up top! Significant totals are expected each morning.
While we will have significant snowfall piling up Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings, we will also have strong ridgetop winds and gusty base winds Monday and Tuesday, with ridgetop gusts up to 80+ mph at the peak, likely closing some upper mountain lifts.
Wednesday and Thursday morning, the winds are forecast to drop, and I’m targeting that as the best powder mornings, especially for upper mountain terrain. Expect slow openings of terrain by Tuesday, with the winds, heavy snow, and avalanche danger, along with mountain ops digging out.
Thursday into Next Weekend:
By Thursday, the latest model runs show that the trough is shifting a bit east. That will likely shift the storm track east as storms drop down from the NW, which is drier and over land. We could see some snow showers each day into the weekend of the 21st – 22nd, but the latest model runs are mostly dry or only showing light snowfall from systems brushing us.
We’ll continue to watch the trends as the slightest shift west or east of the trough will determine the storm track and whether we go dry or pick up additional snowfall, but likely much lighter amounts. It will stay cold through the period, with base area highs in the 20s next week, warming into the 30s by next weekend.
Long-Range Outlook:
The long-range models suggest that the rough could shift back west off the coast a bit as we go into the week of the 23rd, before shifting back east by the end of the week. That is causing some of the long-range model runs to suggest a better chance that wetter storms dig farther south into the northern Sierra between the 23rd – 27th, with at least light-moderate amounts.
That is different than a few days ago when the trough was forecast to continue to lift north and our pattern going dry the last week of February. We’ll continue to watch the trends to see if more snow is possible the week of the 23rd.
BA
