Wednesday:
Wednesday we will see mostly sunny skies as the high-pressure ridge over the region responsible for the dry weather begins to shift east. Highs in the 40s with a cool and light east wind.
Weak System:
Thursday into Friday we will see a weak trough move through the region. A weak system will approach the Pacific NW Thursday and move east Friday. We will see increasing winds Thursday and clouds by afternoon. Ridgetop winds from the southwest gusting up to 60+ mph by afternoon. Highs around 50 degrees at the base and 40s for the upper mountain.
Some forecast models show light precipitation reaching the mountain by Thursday evening. Scattered showers are possible through Thursday night and Friday. Snow levels look to start up around 9000 ft. and could fall to around 8000 ft. Thursday night, and then maybe as low as 7500 feet by the end Friday afternoon.
Friday should be a cool, windy, and cloudy day with a few scattered showers possible. Highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains. Ridgetop winds gusting from the southwest up to 70+ mph most of the day. Overall not expecting much precipitation in total. Barely enough for a coating to an inch of snow for the upper elevations.
The Weekend:
Most of the forecast models end any chance of showers by Friday evening. Then clearing for Saturday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the higher elevations. The winds will drop off with a light east wind by afternoon.
Sunday we should see another dry day as high pressure builds over the region. Highs could reach 50 degrees again at the base. Overnight lows in the 20s and inversions are possible again with the lighter winds, but it should be cold enough for most of the mountain terrain for snowmaking, and the drier air will help as well.
Early Next Week:
Monday could be the warmest day with highs in the 50s at the base and 40s for the upper mountain. The dry pattern continues but the ridge over the region begins to shift.
By Tuesday we could see another weak trough move through the West. An area of low pressure off of the southern CA coast could eject inland towards the base of the trough to the northeast. There is a slight chance of scattered showers for the Sierra Tuesday as the low moves inland, but the latest model runs are pretty dry. We will see a cool down with highs back into the 40s at the base and 30s for the higher elevations.
Long-Range:
By next Wednesday the next high-pressure ridge is building back in over CA bringing us another dry pattern through at least Thanksgiving.
As of right now, we are expecting temperatures not to warm significantly through this period. So we may still see nights cold enough for snowmaking. It’s impossible for us to forecast how much the mountain can make each night and when they could re-open. Stay tuned to the website and social media for the latest updates.
Fantasy Range:
The GFS ensembles suggest a West coast trough the last few days of the month. That could bring a wetter pattern back to northern CA. But don’t get excited just yet. The Canadian and European models suggest the show the ridge still over the West Coast. That would continue the dry pattern.
We may have to rely on snowmaking for now. Hopefully, the GFS model is onto something for the end of the month into early December, but confidence is low right now. I’ll keep looking for any signs of a return of a snowy pattern. In the meantime, let’s hope for cold dry nights for good snowmaking!
BA
