Wet Wednesday Morning:
It’s a wet morning with some lingering rain showers around, but those are diminishing through the morning. We had a strange hour around 7 PM last night when snow levels dipped to 7000-8000 ft. for about an hour. A quick coating accumulated up top, but that washed away overnight as snow levels shot back up.
As the showers diminish through the day, we should see some sun through the clouds by afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 40-50+ mph. What a difference a week makes, as we went from one of the biggest and coldest storms in years to this rainy mess.
Thursday – Friday Drying:
Mostly sunny and mild for Thursday and Friday as we dry out from the wet weather. Highs into the 50s for the lower elevations and 40s for the upper mountain, with lighter winds.
Saturday – Monday Showers:
The latest model runs continue to show the low-pressure system off the coast weakening as it tries to push inland over the weekend, with the low over NV by Monday. That will bring in some clouds and gusty winds with chances for showers by later Saturday into Monday.
Highs drop into the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the higher elevations. Snow levels likely staying above 8000 ft. through Sunday, with rain showers for the lower elevations and some wet flakes for the peaks. Monday, we could see snow levels drop near the base as some colder air wraps in from the north on the back side of the departing low.
We could see a coating to an inch of snow for the upper mountain on Sunday and Monday. I’ll continue to watch the trends on snowfall, but not expecting much.
Long-Range Outlook:
The long-range models are not in complete agreement on how close to the West Coast the ridge that builds off the coast next week will sit through the 2nd week of March.
Some models have it backing away from the coast enough for the Sierra to be near the western edge of a western trough at times. Others suggest that the ridge is closer, with any troughs staying farther east and north through the period.
Overall, we are expecting a drier pattern with any storms that drop in to the NE of the northern Sierra only brushing us with lighter precipitation if any reach us. The first system that the models are hinting at brushing us with is around next Wednesday.
We’ll continue to watch the trends, but no significant storms are currently on the horizon in this forecasted pattern. Being on the east side of the ridge, that should keep away any big warmups. Highs on the upper mountain are forecast to range between the 30s and 40s, with 40s and 50s for the lower elevations near the base.
BA
