Saturday – Sunday:
High pressure is over the region continuing a dry pattern through Sunday. Nice weather Saturday with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds with highs in the 40s and approaching 50 degrees at the base.
Sunday a cold trough is approaching from the north. We could cool a few degrees back into the 40s and see increasing west winds. Ridgetop gusts up to 70+ mph could affect some lifts by afternoon.
Monday – Wednesday Systems:
A cold trough digs down from the north by early Monday bringing colder air and the chance for snow showers. Highs drop into the 30s at the base and 20s up top with breezy west winds. Right now amounts look light with the front Monday morning with a dusting up to an inch of snow on the mountain.
We could see a break between systems Monday afternoon with some clearing. But then another cold system drops down through the Sierra Monday night through Tuesday night, and possibly into Wednesday. It will get quite cold with highs only in the 20s at the base and teens up top.
The snowfall forecast is tricky with this type of system, but the cold air helps to fluff the totals with light and powdery snow. Some areas of the Tahoe Basin may only pick up 3-6 inches, with some mountains that see heavier showers possibly seeing 6-12 inches of snow. For now, we’ll look for a large range of 3-6″ at the base and 6-12″ on the upper mountain, and try to fine-tune the forecast over the next 2 days.
We could see a break in the storms with a drier pattern Thursday through next Saturday the 26th. Warming slightly each day. Starting in the 30s at the base and 20s up top Thursday, and then 40s & 30s Friday into next Saturday.
The latest model runs are at odds on whether we could see a pair of storms the last 2 days of the month or if they stay to our north. We’ll continue to watch the trends. It looks like a better chance for storms going into the 1st week of March. We’ll continue to watch the trends on that as well as we get closer.