Storm Recap:
We were expecting high snow levels with the storm that would slowly fall to the base by Monday afternoon/evening. My forecast was for a coating up to a few inches below 7000 ft, and 8-17 inches above 7000 ft.
The report from 8000 ft. on the mountain is 12 inches for the storm total. So likely a bit more above that and less below that, but overall within the range we expected for the storm. We saw a coating of snow in the village.
Tuesday – Wednesday Weather:
The storm has cleared the region, and we have mostly sunny skies and colder temperatures behind the storm. Highs will warm into the 40s at the base, and 30s for the upper mountain, both days. It should get just cold enough to make a little snow on the mountains at night.
Thursday System:
A fast-moving and weakening system will sweep through the northern Sierra early Thursday morning into Thursday night. Low pressure spins up near the CA coast and drops south into Thursday night with some wrap-around snow on the north side from the east. Here is a look at the storm on our Global Storm Forecast map layer.
The initial front that is falling apart will likely only bring lighter snow showers on Thursday, and then we could see the most precipitation on the east side of the Sierra with the wrap-around showers into Thursday night. The models are only showing up to a few tenths of an inch of precipitation.
The snow levels look to be close to the base throughout the storm, 6000 – 6500 ft. We could see some rain mixed in near the base. With the light precipitation amounts in total, I’m not expecting much more than a dusting to an inch of snow at best near the base, with 1-3 inches of snow possible on the upper mountain by Friday morning.
The Weekend:
High pressure is still forecast to build in over the region Friday through Monday, bringing us a nice weekend. Mostly sunny days with highs warming into the 40s for the lower elevations to start, and then 50s are likely by Sunday.
Long-Range Outlook:
The long-range models continue to show the high-pressure ridge amplifying near the West Coast for the last week of November, but the recent trends have been for it to be a bit farther east. Either way, it is a drier forecast for the West Coast, but farther east and centered over the West Coast, with the trough over the central U.S. instead of over the West, is a milder pattern.
Some of the longer-range models pull the ridge and trough back west by the beginning of December, possibly cracking open the door to some storms returning, at least for the Pacific NW into far northern CA. We’ll see…
The various forecast models don’t agree on the position of the ridge and whether we will stay on the colder side or get mild. The trend is towards the milder side. A lack of significant or any storms seems to be a good bet at least through the end of the month. So I’m hoping for cold enough air to make snow, which is why I’m dialing into the temperature forecasts more than normal.
We’ll continue to watch the trends on temperatures and the storm door, hopefully reopening sooner than later, as we go into December.
BA
