Finishing the Mild Weather:
We have two more days of mild weather, Wednesday and Thursday, with highs near 60 degrees at the base and 50s on the mountain. We have been seeing overnight inversions making any snowmaking difficult up on the mountain.
Snowstorms Begin:
The latest model runs have been speeding up the arrival of the first storm, with precipitation possibly reaching the mountain by late morning/midday, continuing Friday night, and then clearing out on Saturday.
Highs drop into the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the higher elevations. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 80-90+ mph on Friday from the SW. The winds drop over the weekend but still gusty into Sunday ahead of the next storm. Sun and clouds over the weekend between the storms, with snowmaking conditions improving a little at night.
The latest model runs are in disagreement on how fast and how well the 2nd storm holds together. We could see precipitation return by Sunday night and linger into Monday, with some models showing precipitation lingering into Tuesday.
Friday Snowfall Potential:
The snow levels look to start up around or just above 7000 ft. on Friday. But the latest model trends are for colder air to work in than previously forecast, with snow levels possibly dropping to near the base by Friday evening, and as low as 5000 ft. by Saturday morning.
That means we could pile up some decent snowfall totals on the mountains, and even near the base. By Saturday we could see up to 5-9 inches of new snow near the base, 11-16 inches near mid-mountain, and 14-20 inches up top.
This is the first real snowstorm of the season if this forecast holds, which would be pretty exciting and would quickly change the landscape in the northern Sierra this weekend.
Sunday Night – Tuesday Snowfall Potential:
The latest model runs have a bigger range in scenarios for the 2nd storm, with total precipitation forecasts between 0.2 – 2.0 inches of precipitation, depending on how well this storm holds together as it moves through the region.
The snow levels rise again on Sunday ahead of the storm, up to around 7000-7500 ft. again, and then fall back to near the base Sunday night, and could stay there through Tuesday.
Using the latest model average, we could see additional snowfall amounts of around 3-7 inches near the base, 6-11 inches near mid-mountain, and 8-13 inches up top. We will have to watch the trends, as this forecast could change if the storm falls apart as it moves through.
Another Storm Next Week:
There is another storm in the forecast that could move through around next Wednesday, the 18th. We’ll be keeping an eye on that storm as well. It too could drop some healthy snowfall amounts on the mountains.
With the colder air moving into the region as well, the overnight snowmaking will improve. The natural and manmade snow should give the ski areas a great boost to building bases and trails as we start to get closer to opening day at the end of next week!
Long-Range Outlook:
The longer-range models continue to show a pattern going into Thanksgiving week that has a large low-pressure trough off the West Coast, and high pressure to the east over the West.
The question is still whether or not the trough is close enough to the West Coast, or the storms are strong enough to continue to push into CA. If not, we could see storms falling apart as they approach the coast and encounter the high pressure, or move underneath into the southern U.S. That would bring us a drier pattern.
We’ll continue to watch the trends on that pattern, and if we get lots of snow before that, we’ll be thankful for the early-season snow on Thanksgiving.
BA
