Sunday – Monday Cold & Winds:
A dry cold front is moving through Sunday morning. Highs in the 20s for highs Sunday and Monday with mostly sunny skies. As the low over the great basin drops south through the day on Sunday and high pressure continues to build off the coast, the pressure gradient between them will tighten with the winds from the northeast increasing into Sunday night.
Winds could be gusting up to 60+ mph over the ridges by afternoon and even stronger Sunday night, and then still up to 60+ mph Monday morning before slowly coming down through the afternoon. The strong winds and highs in the 20s Sunday into Monday will bring wind chills on the mountains that will make it feel much colder and could affect some upper mountain lifts.
Tuesday – Friday:
The center of highest pressure will be sitting near the West Coast through the end of the week. That will block storms with mostly sunny skies expected each day through Friday as the dry pattern continues.
But we will be on the east side of the high-pressure ridge off the coast which will continue a northerly flow of colder air into the region, and below-average temperatures. Highs into the 30s starting Tuesday and maybe breaking 40 degrees at lake level by Friday.
The 29th – 31st:
By Saturday the 28th, the ridge off the coast begins to shift northwest away from the West Coast, and a cold trough may dig in from the north by next Sunday the 29th. That could open the door to cold systems dropping down from the north starting next Sunday through the end of the month.
The track of systems from the north is important. If they track down over land they are moisture starved with only light snow showers possible. If they track south near the coast they can tap a bit more moisture. We’ll continue to watch the trends all week to see if snow could return by next Sunday.
The First Week of February:
Going into the first week of February the ridge is still forecast to shift a bit farther northwest away from the West Coast. The long-range models don’t agree on whether that will open up the storm door enough for wetter storms during the 1st week of February, or if we could see weaker systems with some missing us to the north.
We’ll continue to watch the trends for the 1st week of February as well as we get closer. Overall temperatures are expected to stay below average through the next two weeks.
P.S. I will likely shift to posting forecasts every other day until we have storms back into the 5-day forecast window. I don’t want to bore you with daily forecasts calling for a dry weather pattern.