Short Term Forecast:
The active pattern continues to our north into the Pacific NW through Saturday. We have a storm moving in Thursday and again Friday into Saturday.
The storms are expected to mainly stay to our north through Saturday. We will see some clouds along with some sun and gusty winds. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 100+ mph by Thursday evening from the southwest, up to 70+ mph Friday, and dropping to 50+ mph by Saturday afternoon. Highs in the 50s at the base and 40s for the upper mountain.
We could see a stray shower Saturday, but most models keep the precipitation to our north through Saturday.
Colder Pattern with Snow:
The latest forecast model runs continue to show the next storm for Sunday digging farther south into northern CA along with much colder air. The biggest change from the last post is that the models now show this cold trough hanging around through at least Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday.
We may see the heaviest precipitation with the cold front on Sunday and then we could see unsettled weather through Wednesday with chances for snow showers as additional weak waves move through the trough. The daytime heating will likely help fire up some heavier isolated showers over the mountains each afternoon.
We could see some sun in between showers Mon-Wed and the strong sun angle will make it hard for snow to stick to areas not in the shade or where snow is already on the ground for the lower elevations, a better chance at night. Highs only in the 30s on the mountain and near 40 degrees at the base throughout the period. Snow levels could fluctuate between 5000-6000 ft. during the day and 3000-4000 ft. at night. That means mostly snow showers to the base through the period.
Snowfall amounts on the upper mountain could be 3-6″ through Sunday night. Then 0-2″ possible each day through Wednesday. The base will have a harder time seeing snow stick during the day, but light accumulations are possible at night and on cold surfaces. If we see heavier bands of snow move through we could also see snow accumulate during the day.
In total, we could see 2-6″ at the base and 6-12″ on the mountain by Thursday morning. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 60-70+ mph from the southwest Fri-Sun could close some upper mountain lifts this weekend. Breezy winds Mon-Wed but they should be lighter than over the weekend.
Some models keep cooler temps and a chance of showers into next Thursday the 12th, while others start to clear us out as high pressure starts to build back in. The mountain is only open Fri-Sun through the end of May, so the forecast may not matter as much during the weekdays other than the fact that more snow could accumulate on the mountain keeping the base from melting.
The long-range models continue to show high pressure finally building in by the end of next week into the weekend of the 14th, and possibly staying over the region through the following week. That should bring much nicer weather for skiing next weekend.
Some models suggest we could see additional cool troughs with unsettled weather later in the month. So we will keep an eye on that.