The Weekend:
We will see some colder air over the weekend as a cold trough digs into the West. Highs will drop into the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the upper mountain, along with mostly sunny skies.
The last week of January:
High pressure builds back in over the West and CA as we go into the week of the 26th. That will rebound temperatures after a colder weekend, with highs into the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the upper mountain.
We will also continue to see mostly sunny days through Tue-Wed. By the 28th through the 1st, we still expect to see the jet stream across the Pacific strengthen and extend, with a trough pushing in close to the West Coast. That will bring a chance for some clouds and light precipitation to push in close to the northern Sierra, but we may also stay dry.
Long-Range Outlook:
To start off February, it still looks dry as high pressure builds back in over the West and expands over the West coast during the first week of February. That will likely block any chances of storms reaching the West Coast and will continue our dry pattern.
Going into the 2nd week of February, the ridge is forecast to start slowly shifting away from the West Coast, with a trough possibly backing in over the West by mid-month. How fast and how far does the pattern back up is the question. The 2nd week of February on the long-range ensemble mean model runs looks fairly dry.
The ridge/trough pattern could back enough by mid-month for some colder air into the West, and possibly allow bigger storms to return to the Pacific NW during the 3rd week of February, possibly reaching the northern Sierra.
This is all very speculative as it’s almost a month away, but we are grasping at straws at this point, as we’ll be in a 5+ week dry spell by mid-February. For now, staying in the non-fantasyland 10-day forecast range, we have a chance for showers around the end of next week at best, and nothing that I see beyond 10 days to get excited about yet. Pray for snow.
BA
P.S. The next update will be Monday morning. Let’s get through the colder weekend and hope that the long-range forecast changes…
