Monday System:
Mostly cloudy for Monday with increasing ridgetop winds. Gusts up to 60+ mph from the west by afternoon. Highs in the 40s. A few showers could pop up during the afternoon with snow levels above 7500 ft. The average of the forecast models for total precipitation this morning is around 1 tenth of an inch. Still really low but more than nothing. Most of the precipitation is expected south of Lake Tahoe.
Snow levels will fall to around 7000 ft. or just below Monday evening. So some of the showers will be all snow on the upper mountain. We could see a dusting up to an inch on the upper mountain by Tuesday morning. Overnight lows in the 20s on the upper mountain should allow for snowmaking finally.
Tuesday – Wednesday:
We see a slight cooldown for Tuesday into Wednesday but not that cold. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Expecting sunny skies for Tuesday with northeast breezes. Wednesday we could see increasing clouds with ridgetop winds increasing to 80+ mph from the west. Cold temps at night should allow for some snowmaking on the mountain.
Wednesday Night – Thursday Storm:
Some of the latest forecast model runs suggest a few snow showers could sneak in later in the afternoon ahead of the next system. As the cold trough moves south into the region we are expecting snow showers to increase Wednesday night and they could last into Thursday evening before ending.
The strong winds drop-off for Thursday and it will be much colder. Highs near freezing at the base and 20s for the upper mountain. It will be cold and snow showery, but we aren’t expecting heavy snow. Snow levels drop below the base at the start so we are expecting all snow with this storm.
The latest model runs show total precipitation amounts around 7 tenths of an inch on the high end. With a little help from the cold air to fluff the snow, we could see 3-6 inches of snow at the base and 6-9 inches for the upper mountain by Thursday night.
The Weekend:
We should see sunny skies Friday even though it’s cold with highs in the 30s at the base and 20s on the mountain. Then continued dry weather and slightly warmer for the weekend but still cold. Highs near 40 degrees at the base and 30s on the mountain. Around the clock snowmaking is possible Friday and then overnight snowmaking will continue through the weekend.
Long-range:
The long-range models are still showing a deep trough over the West Coast by early next week. A stronger storm is forecast to spin up in the trough off the CA by next Monday. Ahead of the storm, we may see southerly flow which will limit moisture from pushing east into the Sierra. We could see moisture stream into northern CA by next Monday but not progress into our region.
At some point Tuesday – Wednesday the storm should shift inland with rain and snow pushing into the Sierra. We will continue to watch the trends.
We could see another system move in next Thursday the 16th. The pattern could remain active through the 3rd week of December. The long-range models continue to show a wetter pattern through this period. More details as we get closer.
BA
