President’s Day:
We will see mostly sunny skies Monday with highs into the 40s as high pressure sits near the West Coast.
Tuesday Pattern Change:
Tuesday starts dry with highs hitting the 30s in the morning, but with increasing clouds and winds from the west as a cold front approaches from the north. Ridgetop winds could be gusting up to 80-90+ mph by midday, which will close some upper mountain lifts.
Snow showers could break out by 1 PM and fill in through the afternoon. A band of steadier snow is expected later in the afternoon/evening as the cold front moves through, with snow showers behind the front Tuesday night. Snow levels could start near the base but fall quickly. Powdery snow is expected to fall Tuesday night.
By Wednesday morning we could see 24-hour snowfall totals of:
- 2-5 inches at the base.
- 3-6 inches at mid-mountain elevations.
- 4-7 inches up top.
Wednesday – Friday Snow:
Highs will only be in the teens on the upper mountain and 20s at the base through Friday. Ridgetop winds drop with gusts only up to 30-40+ mph up top Wednesday & Friday, and a possible a bit higher Thursday up to 50-60+ mph. Any wind will make the cold air feel even colder.
We may only see an additional inch or two during the day Wednesday as a weaker wave moves through with scattered snow showers. Then Wednesday night through Friday a slow-moving low moves down the CA coast with steadier snow showers possible, and scattered snow showers into Friday night.
With the very cold air in place, the snow ratios will be high with powdery snow continuing through the period. By Saturday morning we could see 3-day additional snowfall totals of:
- 12-17 inches at the base.
- 14-20 inches at mid-mountain elevations.
- 17-23 inches up top.
World Cup Weekend:
The latest model runs show the low sitting over southern CA into Sunday, with Tahoe on the northern edge or just to the north. We’ll have to watch the trends over the next few days to see if we could see partly sunny skies with highs warming into the 30s, or if clouds and scattered snow showers stick around with slightly colder temps.
We could see the winds increase later Sunday ahead of the next storm moving in Sunday night. This system is expected to be weaker with light snow possible into Monday morning.
Long-Range:
The long-range models continue to show a wetter storm spinning up off the coast by Monday the 27th that could bring some heavier snow to the northern Sierra through Tuesday the 28th. This storm could drop significant snowfall on the region if the current trends continue.
We could see a brief break later next week, but overall the below-average temperatures and active storm pattern could continue through the 1st week of March into the 2nd. We’ll continue to watch the trends…
BA
