Nice Weekend:
Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures for the last weekend in March. Highs into the 60s for the lower elevations and 50s for the upper elevations.
Monday Change:
Monday, we start to cool down as high pressure departs and a low-pressure trough approaches. Highs drop into the 50s for the lower elevations and 40s for the upper elevations. Ridgetop wind gusts increasing up to 40-50+ mph.
Rain & Snow Showers:
The first round of showers could reach the Sierra by early Tuesday morning. The latest model runs disagree on where the steadiest showers could fall Tuesday into Wednesday, with some showing the northern Sierra and the Tahoe Basin, while others are farther south towards the Central Sierra.
Highs drop into the 30s on the mountain and 40s near the base. Snow levels could drop to around 7000 ft. during steadier showers and sit up around 8000 ft. during lighter showers both days. Winds are still gusting up to 40-50+ mph from the SW on Tuesday, and then increasing later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the colder storm moves through. The disagreement among the forecast models with this system is whether it will dig far enough south to bring steady snow to the Tahoe Basin with the cold front, or whether we will just see showers with the steadier precipitation staying to our north, as the latest GFS model run shows.
The showers behind the front could linger into the day on Thursday, but diminish into the afternoon as the system clears the region into Thursday night. Ridgetop winds start strong early Thursday morning and drop throughout the day. Highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees down at the base.
If the first system ends up farther south and the second farther north, then we could see very little precipitation. If they track a bit farther north and south, respectively, we could see the higher end of the forecasts. The snow levels could drop near the base by early Thursday morning if the cold front digs far enough south, and then rise back up to 7000-8000 ft. with any lingering showers into Thursday afternoon.
Outside of the early Thursday morning time frame, we should see mainly rain showers below 7000 ft., with maybe a coating up to a couple of inches of snow Thursday morning. A mix of rain and snow is likely between 7000 – 8000 ft. until snow levels drop Wednesday night. 2-5 inches of wet snow are possible. Above 8000 ft., 5-9 inches of snow is possible by Thursday afternoon.
We’ll continue to watch the trends closely to see if the downward trend in precipitation and snowfall will continue…
Friday Weather:
Mostly sunny skies return for Friday, but it stays cool. Highs into the 30s on the mountains and 40s for the lower elevations near the base.
Long-Range Outlook:
By next weekend, into the 2nd week of April, the long-range models continue to show high pressure over the West Coast, with the center of the highest heights just off the West Coast. That should bring us a drier pattern, but with seasonal temperatures. The averages going into April are highs in the 50s for the lower elevations and 40s for the upper mountain.
The longer-range models continue to show the ridge backing away from the coast by mid-month into the 3rd week of April, with lower heights over the West. That could keep temperatures seasonal. We could also see weak systems that bring some rain and snow showers to the mountain at times.
BA
