Dry Week, Colder Next Weekend

It’s a quiet Saturday morning, and I don’t have much in the way of good news as far as significant snowfall on the way. At best, we can look forward to some colder air and maybe some snow showers next weekend into the 1st week of December. Hopefully that changes…

Saturday – Friday:

We are in a dry pattern through Thanksgiving, and also semi-mild. Highs in the 40s for most of the week, and warming into the 50s for the lower elevations by Thanksgiving Day. That is not good news for snowmaking efforts to expand coverage, as we may stay above freezing several nights.

Pattern Change:

Next weekend (the last weekend of November), we are still expecting a pattern change over North America. The models are actually showing one of the strongest stratospheric warming patterns, to the north over the polar region and northern Canada, that we have ever seen in November, maybe back to 1989.

We will see strong high pressure in the northeastern Pacific, which will help to drive colder air south into the West. This pattern change is partly being pushed by a sudden stratospheric warming event and disruption of the polar vortex, helping to send colder air into the U.S.

We will benefit from this pattern next weekend into the 1st week of December with colder air moving in. Unfortunately, in this pattern, with the high-pressure ridge in the northeastern Pacific, it blocks and prevents stronger storms from spinning up off the coast and moving into the West Coast. Any storms we see will likely drop down from the north. They are cold but moisture-starved.

The latest model runs show a chance for some snow showers with the arrival of the colder air next weekend (the 29th – 30th), with some colder air even starting to push in by Black Friday. As of today, we are still not expecting much, if any, snowfall accumulations more than a dusting to an inch or so, but we’ll continue to watch the trends all week.

Long-Range Outlook:

Going through the first week of December, the longer-range models continue to show the trough and cold air shifting eastward, with high pressure off the coast shifting towards the West Coast. That should still keep us in a colder pattern, but likely moderating some. The good news right now is that snowmaking conditions should improve next weekend into the first week of December.

If the ridge is too close to the West Coast, we could see a dry pattern through the 1st week of December. Some models have it a bit farther off the coast with snow showers at times moving through from the north, but overall, below average precipitation for the next two weeks.

If the ridge backs far enough west away from the coast at some point, maybe not until beyond two weeks, but hopefully sooner, storms can track down closer to the coast and pick up Pacific moisture, bringing us a better chance of measurable snowfall.

We’ll continue to watch the trends and hope for better news soon. We can take a look again on Monday morning to see if there are any positive signs for snowstorms as we go into December.

BA