A Week of Warm, Then A Change

Warm Week Ahead:

We have very warm weather coming this week, along with sunny days. We start off not quite as warm over the weekend with some sun and clouds and breezy winds. Ridgetop winds from the west gusting up to 40-50+ mph on Saturday. Highs in the 50s for the lower elevations and 40s for the higher elevations through Sunday.

Then the ridge strengthens over the West this week and stays in place through the end of the week, with sunny days lined up through Friday. That will help to bring us very warm days with highs near 70 degrees at the base and 60s on the mountain through next Saturday, the 21st. We may see some clouds by Friday into Saturday as the ridge starts to weaken a little.

A Pattern Change:

The long-range models are still showing a pattern change starting around the 22nd, going through the last week of March.

Some forecast models are more aggressive with deeper trough digging in over the West Coast. That would open the door wide enough that several storms could move through northern CA during the period, with near to above average precipitation for the last week of March.

Other models show a much shallower trough, but they do show the ridge weakening and shifting away. That pattern could allow us to get brushed by storms moving through to our north, but with much lighter amounts of precipitation, likely if any, with below average precipitation for the period.

We’ll continue to watch the trends as we get closer to the last week of March. But as of right now, there are still no clear signs of a bigger snowstorm. Just a chance for some refreshes of the snow currently on the ground.

What is more certain is that we will likely shift back into a colder pattern, with highs dropping into the 50s for the lower elevation and 40s for the upper mountain by the 22nd, and possibly into the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the upper mountain during the last week of March.

Long-Range Outlook:

The longer-range models suggest that any strong ridging could stay away as we go into April, with maybe a similar pattern during the 1st week of April as the last week of March.

BA