Snowfall Report:
Storms moving through over the weekend brought fresh snow to the mountain. We saw snow fall all the way to near the base, with little accumulation that low. Above 6500 ft., we saw anywhere from an inch up to 7 inches up top, according to OpenSnow’s estimated snowfall tool.
Weak System:
Looking at the satellite image this morning, we see the clouds from the next system approaching. We will see some clouds push in on Monday, with more on Tuesday along with gusty ridgetop winds. Highs in the 40s, with temps dropping into the 30s for the upper elevations Tuesday afternoon as light precipitation pushes into the northern Sierra.
We aren’t expecting much precipitation with this system through Tuesday evening. Maybe 1-2 tenths of an inch over the mountain. Snow levels start the day up near 8000 ft. but fall to near 7000 ft. during the afternoon, and maybe close to the base by the end of Tuesday evening. That could bring a coating to an inch or two of additional snowfall to the upper elevations.
Drier Pattern:
We are still expecting a break in the active pattern starting Wednesday and lasting through the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny skies during the day, with highs warming into the 50s, with 40s for the higher elevations above 8000 ft.
Overnight lows may stay above freezing for most ski areas, especially below 8000 ft. That means snowmaking will be difficult or impossible with the mild pattern, and the fresh snow will start to melt through the end of the week into the weekend.
We could stay in the drier pattern through the 10th. The long-range models continue to show a pattern change possibly taking place beyond the 10th, with a large trough in the eastern Pacific trying to push into the West Coast through mid-month.
That could open the door to storms, and possibly wetter storms, through the period. The precipitation anomalies on most models continue to show above-average precipitation amounts possible between the 10th and 17th.
We never take stock in forecasts beyond a week, but the signals and agreement among the models are still looking positive for a possible active period. We’ll continue to watch the trends…
BA
