Wednesday Weather:
Partly sunny for Wednesday with some clouds moving in ahead of the next storm. Ridgetop winds increase later Wednesday with gusts up to 40-50+ mph from the southwest during the afternoon. Highs in the 40s.
Thursday Snow:
A fast-moving storm will bring light-moderate snow by early morning Thursday, likely starting before sunrise, and then quickly moving out by Thursday evening. Highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations. Winds decrease throughout the day.
Snow levels drop quickly as this storm starts, down below the base by early Thursday morning. This fast-moving storm could bring 1-4 inches of snow near the base, 2-5 inches near mid-mountain, and 3-6 inches in total up top by Thursday night.
Friday Weather:
We will see a break Friday between storms with partly sunny skies and highs in the 30s. The winds will be increasing a bit ahead of the next storm that is approaching the West Coast. Gusts from the WSW up to 30-40+ mph by afternoon.
Friday Night – Saturday Night Storm:
The latest model runs are in better agreement on the heaviest precipitation streaming into northern CA Friday night into Saturday morning stalling to our northwest, and then pushing south through the region with the front Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
The heaviest snow is expected for Saturday afternoon-evening as the front pushes south and then tapering off by early Sunday morning. Highs in the 30s for the Saturday with ridgetop winds gusting up to 80-100+ mph. So expect quite a bit few upper mountain lifts to be impacted by winds.
Snow levels may briefly start around 6500-7000 ft. Friday evening but then rise to around 7500-8000+ ft. by midnight and slowly back near 6500-7000 ft. by Saturday morning. Then colder air moves in with the front Saturday into Saturday night, dropping snow levels below the base during the day on Saturday.
That means we expect some rain on lower mountain terrain Friday night, and then snow at some point Saturday continuing into Saturday night. In total by Sunday morning, we could see around 4-8 inches of new snow near the base, 8-13 inches near mid-mountain, and 11-16 inches up top.
Sunday Weather:
We have another break between storms on Sunday. The winds will drop. Highs in the 30s. We will see clearing into the afternoon with partly – mostly sunny skies. It could be a great day for fresh tracks, especially on the upper mountain where the drier snow will fall Saturday.
Monday System:
Another weak and fast-moving system is still expected to move through Monday. That could bring a final round of snow showers and light snowfall accumulations for the mountains. The latest model runs have trended farther north with not much moisture left over the northern Sierra as this system moves through Monday afternoon-evening.
As of this morning, it looks like maybe 1-3 inches of snow on the mountain at best from this system. We could see ridgetop winds gusting up to 60-80+ mph on Monday with highs in the 30s.
Long-Range Forecast:
High pressure builds in over the West Coast starting Tuesday starting a drier pattern for northern CA. We should see mostly sunny skies each day through the end of the week. Highs into the 30s to start but we may warm into the 40s for the lower elevations by the end of the week.
The long-range models are starting to diverge on how close the eastern Pacific trough pushes toward the West Coast around the 21st – 22nd. Some models still try to push a storm in around the 22nd while others keep us dry through Christmas.
We’ll continue to watch the trends…
BA
